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  • P-ISSN2765-2203
  • E-ISSN2765-2211

Predicting the Invasion Potential of Pink Muhly (Muhlenbergia capillaris) in South Korea

Predicting the Invasion Potential of Pink Muhly (Muhlenbergia capillaris) in South Korea

국립생태원보, (P)2765-2203; (E)2765-2211
2020, v.1 no.1, pp.74-82
https://doi.org/10.22920/PNIE.2020.1.1.74
ParkJeong Soo(Jeong Soo Park) (National Institute of Ecology)
ChoiDonghui(Donghui Choi) (National Institute of Ecology)
KimYoungha(Youngha Kim) (National Institute of Ecology)
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초록

Predictions of suitable habitat areas can provide important information pertaining to the risk assessment and management of alien plants at early stage of their establishment. Here, we predict the invasion potential of Muhlenbergia capillaris (pink muhly) in South Korea using five bioclimatic variables. We adopt four models (generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest (RF), and artificial neural network) for projection based on 630 presence and 600 pseudo-absence data points. The RF model yielded the highest performance. The presence probability of M. capillaris was highest within an annual temperature range of 12 to 24°C and with precipitation from 800 to 1,300 mm. The occurrence of M. capillaris was positively associated with the precipitation of the driest quarter. The projection map showed that suitable areas for M. capillaris are mainly concentrated in the southern coastal regions of South Korea, where temperatures and precipitation are higher than in other regions, especially in the winter season. We can conclude that M. capillaris is not considered to be invasive based on a habitat suitability map. However, there is a possibility that rising temperatures and increasing precipitation levels in winter can accelerate the expansion of this plant on the Korean Peninsula.

keywords
Alien plant Muhlenbergia capillaris Random forest Risk assessment Suitable habitat

Abstract

Predictions of suitable habitat areas can provide important information pertaining to the risk assessment and management of alien plants at early stage of their establishment. Here, we predict the invasion potential of Muhlenbergia capillaris (pink muhly) in South Korea using five bioclimatic variables. We adopt four models (generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest (RF), and artificial neural network) for projection based on 630 presence and 600 pseudo-absence data points. The RF model yielded the highest performance. The presence probability of M. capillaris was highest within an annual temperature range of 12 to 24°C and with precipitation from 800 to 1,300 mm. The occurrence of M. capillaris was positively associated with the precipitation of the driest quarter. The projection map showed that suitable areas for M. capillaris are mainly concentrated in the southern coastal regions of South Korea, where temperatures and precipitation are higher than in other regions, especially in the winter season. We can conclude that M. capillaris is not considered to be invasive based on a habitat suitability map. However, there is a possibility that rising temperatures and increasing precipitation levels in winter can accelerate the expansion of this plant on the Korean Peninsula.

keywords
Alien plant Muhlenbergia capillaris Random forest Risk assessment Suitable habitat
투고일Submission Date
2020-09-18
수정일Revised Date
2020-10-06
게재확정일Accepted Date
2020-10-12

국립생태원보